使用面板数据进行因果推断是社会科学研究的核心挑战。预测方法的进步可以通过更准确地预测未发生治疗的治疗单元的反事实演变来促进这项任务。在本文中，我们借鉴了新开发的时间序列预测（N-Beats算法）的深度神经体系结构。我们通过合并控制单元的领先值来预测处理后的处理单元的“合成”未经处理的版本，从传统的时间序列应用程序中调整了此方法。我们将从此方法得出的估计量称为合成器，发现它在一系列设置中的传统双向固定效果和合成控制方法显着优于传统的双向固定效果和合成控制方法。我们还发现，相对于最新的面板估计方法，例如矩阵完成和差异中的合成差异，合成器具有可比性或更准确的性能。我们的结果强调了如何利用预测文献的进步来改善面板设置的因果推断。

我们介绍了Caltech Fish计数数据集（CFC），这是一个用于检测，跟踪和计数声纳视频中鱼类的大型数据集。我们将声纳视频识别为可以推进低信噪比计算机视觉应用程序并解决多对象跟踪（MOT）和计数中的域概括的丰富数据来源。与现有的MOT和计数数据集相比，这些数据集主要仅限于城市中的人和车辆的视频，CFC来自自然世界领域，在该域​​中，目标不容易解析，并且无法轻易利用外观功能来进行目标重新识别。 CFC允许​​研究人员训练MOT和计数算法并评估看不见的测试位置的概括性能。我们执行广泛的基线实验，并确定在MOT和计数中推进概括的最新技术的关键挑战和机会。

We propose a new causal inference framework to learn causal effects from multiple, decentralized data sources in a federated setting. We introduce an adaptive transfer algorithm that learns the similarities among the data sources by utilizing Random Fourier Features to disentangle the loss function into multiple components, each of which is associated with a data source. The data sources may have different distributions; the causal effects are independently and systematically incorporated. The proposed method estimates the similarities among the sources through transfer coefficients, and hence requiring no prior information about the similarity measures. The heterogeneous causal effects can be estimated with no sharing of the raw training data among the sources, thus minimizing the risk of privacy leak. We also provide minimax lower bounds to assess the quality of the parameters learned from the disparate sources. The proposed method is empirically shown to outperform the baselines on decentralized data sources with dissimilar distributions.

Learning to predict masked tokens in a sequence has been shown to be a powerful pretraining objective for large-scale language models. After training, such masked language models can provide distributions of tokens conditioned on bidirectional context. In this short draft, we show that such bidirectional conditionals often demonstrate considerable inconsistencies, i.e., they can not be derived from a coherent joint distribution when considered together. We empirically quantify such inconsistencies in the simple scenario of bigrams for two common styles of masked language models: T5-style and BERT-style. For example, we show that T5 models often confuse its own preference regarding two similar bigrams. Such inconsistencies may represent a theoretical pitfall for the research work on sampling sequences based on the bidirectional conditionals learned by BERT-style MLMs. This phenomenon also means that T5-style MLMs capable of infilling will generate discrepant results depending on how much masking is given, which may represent a particular trust issue.

Participants in political discourse employ rhetorical strategies -- such as hedging, attributions, or denials -- to display varying degrees of belief commitments to claims proposed by themselves or others. Traditionally, political scientists have studied these epistemic phenomena through labor-intensive manual content analysis. We propose to help automate such work through epistemic stance prediction, drawn from research in computational semantics, to distinguish at the clausal level what is asserted, denied, or only ambivalently suggested by the author or other mentioned entities (belief holders). We first develop a simple RoBERTa-based model for multi-source stance predictions that outperforms more complex state-of-the-art modeling. Then we demonstrate its novel application to political science by conducting a large-scale analysis of the Mass Market Manifestos corpus of U.S. political opinion books, where we characterize trends in cited belief holders -- respected allies and opposed bogeymen -- across U.S. political ideologies.

3D shapes have complementary abstractions from low-level geometry to part-based hierarchies to languages, which convey different levels of information. This paper presents a unified framework to translate between pairs of shape abstractions: $\textit{Text}$ $\Longleftrightarrow$ $\textit{Point Cloud}$ $\Longleftrightarrow$ $\textit{Program}$. We propose $\textbf{Neural Shape Compiler}$ to model the abstraction transformation as a conditional generation process. It converts 3D shapes of three abstract types into unified discrete shape code, transforms each shape code into code of other abstract types through the proposed $\textit{ShapeCode Transformer}$, and decodes them to output the target shape abstraction. Point Cloud code is obtained in a class-agnostic way by the proposed $\textit{Point}$VQVAE. On Text2Shape, ShapeGlot, ABO, Genre, and Program Synthetic datasets, Neural Shape Compiler shows strengths in $\textit{Text}$ $\Longrightarrow$ $\textit{Point Cloud}$, $\textit{Point Cloud}$ $\Longrightarrow$ $\textit{Text}$, $\textit{Point Cloud}$ $\Longrightarrow$ $\textit{Program}$, and Point Cloud Completion tasks. Additionally, Neural Shape Compiler benefits from jointly training on all heterogeneous data and tasks.

In order for artificial neural networks to begin accurately mimicking biological ones, they must be able to adapt to new exigencies without forgetting what they have learned from previous training. Lifelong learning approaches to artificial neural networks attempt to strive towards this goal, yet have not progressed far enough to be realistically deployed for natural language processing tasks. The proverbial roadblock of catastrophic forgetting still gate-keeps researchers from an adequate lifelong learning model. While efforts are being made to quell catastrophic forgetting, there is a lack of research that looks into the importance of class ordering when training on new classes for incremental learning. This is surprising as the ordering of "classes" that humans learn is heavily monitored and incredibly important. While heuristics to develop an ideal class order have been researched, this paper examines class ordering as it relates to priming as a scheme for incremental class learning. By examining the connections between various methods of priming found in humans and how those are mimicked yet remain unexplained in life-long machine learning, this paper provides a better understanding of the similarities between our biological systems and the synthetic systems while simultaneously improving current practices to combat catastrophic forgetting. Through the merging of psychological priming practices with class ordering, this paper is able to identify a generalizable method for class ordering in NLP incremental learning tasks that consistently outperforms random class ordering.

Imitation learning (IL) is a simple and powerful way to use high-quality human driving data, which can be collected at scale, to identify driving preferences and produce human-like behavior. However, policies based on imitation learning alone often fail to sufficiently account for safety and reliability concerns. In this paper, we show how imitation learning combined with reinforcement learning using simple rewards can substantially improve the safety and reliability of driving policies over those learned from imitation alone. In particular, we use a combination of imitation and reinforcement learning to train a policy on over 100k miles of urban driving data, and measure its effectiveness in test scenarios grouped by different levels of collision risk. To our knowledge, this is the first application of a combined imitation and reinforcement learning approach in autonomous driving that utilizes large amounts of real-world human driving data.

Reinforcement Learning is a powerful tool to model decision-making processes. However, it relies on an exploration-exploitation trade-off that remains an open challenge for many tasks. In this work, we study neighboring state-based, model-free exploration led by the intuition that, for an early-stage agent, considering actions derived from a bounded region of nearby states may lead to better actions when exploring. We propose two algorithms that choose exploratory actions based on a survey of nearby states, and find that one of our methods, ${\rho}$-explore, consistently outperforms the Double DQN baseline in an discrete environment by 49\% in terms of Eval Reward Return.

Diffusion models have achieved great success in modeling continuous data modalities such as images, audio, and video, but have seen limited use in discrete domains such as language. Recent attempts to adapt diffusion to language have presented diffusion as an alternative to autoregressive language generation. We instead view diffusion as a complementary method that can augment the generative capabilities of existing pre-trained language models. We demonstrate that continuous diffusion models can be learned in the latent space of a pre-trained encoder-decoder model, enabling us to sample continuous latent representations that can be decoded into natural language with the pre-trained decoder. We show that our latent diffusion models are more effective at sampling novel text from data distributions than a strong autoregressive baseline and also enable controllable generation.